Title: Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter PlanetAuthor: Mark Lynas
Publisher: National Geographic Society
Pages: 303
ISBN: 978-1-4262-0213-1
It is now accepted in scientific circles that our planet is heating up and humans are a major cause of this warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, we as a society have treated the environment as an inexhaustible sink into which we could safely dump the waste products of our industries. In the beginning, this seemed to be a reasonable assumption. The atmosphere and oceans were so vast, it seemed that no matter what we did, we would not affect them. As the Industrial Revolution proceeded apace, the amount of pollutants that were dumped in the atmosphere and the oceans steadily increased. The change that had occurred in one country steadily spread to other countries as well. The first countries to industrialize were European nations and the US. These countries were then followed by Russia and Japan. By this time, the rest of the world had been carved up by the European countries into their colonies. These colonies were primarily considered to be providers of raw materials for the industrial economies of the mother countries. As a result, the spread of industry into other parts of the world was considerably slower than what it might have been otherwise. Nevertheless, many of these colonies did start the process of industrialization. From 1945 to 1965, most of these colonies gained independence. The newly formed countries were determined to catch up with the richer developed countries as fast as they could and the fastest way of doing so was to follow the path forged by the already developed countries.
Till this point, industrial development was viewed as an unmitigated good. As economies developed, the standards of living rose and markets expanded as greater numbers of people could afford to buy goods and services that previously were within the reach of a much smaller group. The effects of industrial development were seen as being localized and negligible on a global level. The first indication that things were otherwise came with the publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson. The book outlined the destructive effects of DDT spraying on the environment. DDT was the most destructive pesticide ever invented but at first the full effects of its destructiveness were not fully appreciated. This book really brought the issue of the effects of humans on the environment to public notice for the first time. Gradually, the realization came that technological progress is not necessarily an unmitigated good and that there are effects that are difficult to assess in advance.
The next step in the growing ecological awareness came with the Earth Day concept that highlighted the effects of industrial development on nature. This was followed quickly by the discovery of the hole in the ozone layer and the role played by ChloroFloroCarbons (CFCs) in this regard. CFCs were compounds that were widely used in air conditioners and refrigerators. At around the same time, climate scientists discovered that global temperatures were gradually increasing. At first it seemed that the rise recorded was part of the natural variability of the planet but by the nineties, it became clear that temperatures were gradually rising and that human activity was playing a major role in this rise.
This brings us to this important book. If temperatures are rising, then what will be the effect on the climate? At current rates of pollutants, it is thought that the rise of global temperature could be anywhere between one degree and six degrees. At each degree increase in the global temperature, what will be the effect on the planet? Mark Lynas' book aims to answer this question. The findings are detailed in this book and they are horrifying. As temperatures increase, the stress on the planet goes up and our civilization's ability to cope with this change decreases. The author has painstakingly detailed what will happen at each degree of rise in temperature. Upto an increase of three degrees, our global civilization will be able to cope with the effects of climate change albeit with increasing difficulty. Beyond that however, our capacity to absorb the change with minimal damage is non-existent. If temperatures rise four, five or six degrees above the current levels, then we are faced with a civilizational collapse and a loss of life on a horrendous scale. No one will be left unaffected. The band of habitable zone will shift dramatically. This will result in vast numbers of climate refugees. The sad part is that the people most affected will be those who have played the least part in causing climate change. However, if Western politicians think that they will be able to fend off the hordes of desperate refugees who have been forced to move, then they are living in an ivory tower. Even if somehow climate refugees are constrained from moving into more clement places, the capacities of richer societies to cope with climate change will gradually diminish. This is because the destructive effects of floods, typhoons, hurricanes etc. will increase dramatically. These are forces of nature that do not respect any borders.
This is an extremely important book and should be read by all concerned people. The very survival of our civilization is at stake and we must be aware of what the effects of climate change will be if we are to avoid sleep walking into disaster. Definitely recommended as a must read.








